We're always looking for better ways to gauge the economy amid uncertainty about jobs, economic growth and the dreaded double dip of a potential second recession.
The problem with most statistics is that they're after the fact looking back. But what if you could get hard data that indicates immediately how the economy is doing?
UCLA thinks they've got just that in their new Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index.
The San Francisco Chronicle reports this awkwardly named index measures how many gallons of diesel fuel truckers purchase at truck stops around the country.
The index claims to be a direct indicator of how the economy is doing, which makes sense when you think about how important trucks are for the logistics of our economy.
Amazingly, the Pulse of Commerce Index has been back-tested over 10 years and researchers found an almost exact correlation between economic activity and diesel fuel purchases.
Best of all, they already have January's numbers, and the numbers show the economy grew slightly last month vs. the same time period last year.
If this index keeps indicating growth month after month, you've got to realize that job growth will still lag behind. Clark likens the scenario to a rheostat in your home, where you can slowly dial the lights up or down instead of just flipping them on and off with a switch.
When the time is right, we'll start to see employers move from hiring temps to hiring contract workers to eventually hiring full-time employees again. It's the rheostat model.
But when jobs disappear, they go out like a flick of the switch!
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