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Jun 11, 2009 -- Waiting for the economic recovery

CLARKONOMICS: As Clark goes out and about for speeches and public appearances, he's constantly asked when things are going to get better in the economy.

The challenge for him is to deliver a somewhat gloomy answer without playing to all "the sky is falling" mentality like most other media sources.

A new chart from the Federal Reserve shows that as recently as 1985, the average household had a 60% debt vs. income level. For every dollar they made, they had 60 cents in debt.

Today, however, the average has become $1.30 in debt for every dollar we make. Over the course of 24 years, the amount of debt is up by more than double and it exceeds what the average American makes in a year.

That's unsustainable.

Much of our debt came from payment buying. Nobody thought about the total amount of debt they were taking on; they instead looked at the monthly obligation. Talk about ignoring the big picture.

Here's the cold, hard truth: It's going to take awhile to whittle down our debt level to a reasonable number. Meanwhile, the economists at the Federal Reserve expect unemployment to hit 11% in 2011.

Recovery will be very slow. Picture the letter "L" -- where there's a drop off a precipice and then things just bottom out for a long time -- and you'll have a good idea of what to expect.

The stimulus package will give a temporary boost to the economy as soon as after Labor Day. But that's not a true recovery.

In fact, Clark guesses we have to just muddle through until at least 2015 or 2020.

The important thing to remember is that the economy will recover. It will just be slower than you'd like and take longer than you'd hoped.
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