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Jun 11, 2009 -- Waiting for the economic recovery

CLARKONOMICS: As Clark goes out and about for speeches and public appearances, he's constantly asked when things are going to get better in the economy.

The challenge for him is to deliver a somewhat gloomy answer without playing to all "the sky is falling" mentality like most other media sources.

A new chart from the Federal Reserve shows that as recently as 1985, the average household had a 60% debt vs. income level. For every dollar they made, they had 60 cents in debt.

Today, however, the average has become $1.30 in debt for every dollar we make. Over the course of 24 years, the amount of debt is up by more than double and it exceeds what the average American makes in a year.

That's unsustainable.

Much of our debt came from payment buying. Nobody thought about the total amount of debt they were taking on; they instead looked at the monthly obligation. Talk about ignoring the big picture.

Here's the cold, hard truth: It's going to take awhile to whittle down our debt level to a reasonable number. Meanwhile, the economists at the Federal Reserve expect unemployment to hit 11% in 2011.

Recovery will be very slow. Picture the letter "L" -- where there's a drop off a precipice and then things just bottom out for a long time -- and you'll have a good idea of what to expect.

The stimulus package will give a temporary boost to the economy as soon as after Labor Day. But that's not a true recovery.

In fact, Clark guesses we have to just muddle through until at least 2015 or 2020.

The important thing to remember is that the economy will recover. It will just be slower than you'd like and take longer than you'd hoped.

Unfortunately, Clark won't be able to answer any questions submitted via commenting. If you have a question, please try posting it to our message boards.

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What others are saying

  • In need of a good job
    Hey there ,In need of a good paying job with benefit .lost job ,house, car and now staying with a good friend until I can get back on my feet. Any good security jobs out here in Macon ,Ga 31211.Some let me know, I am able and willing to work
  • still unwemployed
    What are we(the people the USA)to do with out jobs? I make with OT maybe 29,000. if I'm lucky. Why don'nt our gov. listen? ANy ideas?
  • Comment to Mr. Saver
    I want to know if there is a job opening where you work that you can live off of 15% of your gross pay. Can you help me get a job there? I sell real estate, my home just got sold on the courthouse steps. I am a widow with 3 children...maybe he can help me get a great job like his and then I can save $1.3 million.
  • Think about reactions and needs are key
    People really need to think is it a need or a want. How is it going to help us or not. If not neccasary we shouldnt bye unless we are rich. People have never throught of reaction to funds for a long time. Now it is time before the storm is to big to recover from.
  • late recovery
    I am trying to take advantage of these times. Everyone should be doing the same. Invest!!!! Right now you can buy stock for a discounted price. If you can do this for an extended period of time, in the year 2020 when the stock market fully recovers, you should be able to profit from these hard times.
  • going broke
    I agree. It is take a long time. Much longer than the politicans want us to think. They are telling to start spending money. Where's it going to come from? We don't have any.
  • Ecomonic Recovery
    I also agree with you, listening to the news, all are trying to paint a rosy picture, but I don't think it's hit the bottom yet. Morgage rates are creeping up, gas is creeping up, I especially like to see these two things go back down, especially the VA rates!!
  • Economic Recovery
    Clark, you are correct. It will take a long time. The economy is over sturated with cars and building lots. If the American car makers don't make cars with 50 mpg, thay will be making nothing.
  • Economic Recovery NOT!
    I predict, that we are not going to come out of this depression/recession for another 10 years. Here are my reasons:

    1. Over whelming and different branches of the U.S. economy have collapse all at once.

    2. The writing on the wall started back in the 1980's, when Wall Street had its problems with the stockbroker's.

    3. We support the wrong governments,and when we go to war, we need to take over that government and country making it another state in the United States, putting in place a governor, and our laws period. If we had done this, we would now have a few more stars on our flag, and hence more stable in the world.

    4. We sell property/land to foreigners, instead of only allowing American citizens or those who have legally become citizens to purchase and own property in the U.S.A..


    5. Americans need to start buying American or at least from our cousins: U.K. or Scandinavian.

    6. I remember a time when men in America wouldnt buy a tool from an Asian country because they were made cheaply with recycled materials and broke easily.
  • Most people "Cannot" handle money.
    Geez, I see this all around me with my family and freinds, live for today. Just like health care, I won't take care of myself and eat and do the right things. Then when something happens, poor, poor me, why is the world so hard on little ole me??? Wake up America common sense rules. Geez I have over $1.3M and only 53 years old. My wife has not worked in over 20 years and we live off 15% of my gross pay.
  • Not quite greatest generation
    The "greatest generation" was great in some respects, but was not perfect. The welfare state expanded on its watch, as did unrealistic expectations about Social Security, Medicare, "guaranteed jobs" in the rustbelt, an expectation of retirement at 65, etc. "Pre-Greatest" generations expected none of those things. A substantial percentage of Baby Boomers, unfortunately, carried forward those expectations, and expanded them.
  • The Greatest Generation
    The generation who fought and sacrificed during WW II is sadly the last generation with the real 'pioneer spirit'. Every subsequent generation has contributed less and expected more, hoping someone else would pay for it. After 40 years of throwing money at every perceived social problem in this country - we have run out of money. It is ludricrous to think you can spend your way into prosperity.

    Individual debt is increasing because of high spending - not low pay. This is happening at every level of society, individuals, familes, corporate and government. You get rich by collecting money - not things (debt). You get ahead by saving and sacrificing early in life so you won't have to late in life.

    So make the sacrifices - if you're convinced the high paying jobs are overseas (which they are not) then go chase it overseas. Your standard of living is determined by you, not by sales personnel or tv commercials trying to sell you something. If you have good health, your family, close friends, little or no debt, you sleep well at night, depend on yourself instead of the government, then you have a high standard of living.
  • I think another part of having a lower standard of living that nobody really talks about is the fact that for most people, over maybe the last 5-7 years, wages are generally nowhere near keeping up with inflation and have been stagnant. And like someone previously mentioned, high paying jobs are also disapperaing left and right.
  • I would like to see more economics and money management taught in school. When I was in high school, economics was an elective; it wasn't even a required class. How are young people supposed to learn about financial responsibility, if their own parents are irresponsible or simply don't know any better?

    I know history and the dinosaurs, etc. are important, but people are going to have to deal with money all their lives. Why not teach something important?
  • Same ole same ole
    Yes, we're in debt like never before. The brightest of our generations, however, will develop and mine the new energy applications and export it all over the world, like we've done with our best ideas. I didn't vote for this administration, but the idea of getting this country off of oil strikes me as tantamont to our very exsistence, and crisis brings opportunity. This constant pity party gets us nowhere but to the shrink and poorhouse.
  • Accept reality and live within your means
    It's possible to live within your means - the word is "sacrifice". Every day you have options that can cost money, or save you money.

    Some people DO pay cash for their cars. We did. Some people DO put 20% down when they buy a house. We did. It means you buy a car you can afford, NOT a $25,000 car. And it means buying a house you can afford - not the maximum the bank will loan you. It means using the freebie cell phone and buying the minimum service contract, or not using a cell phone at all.

    The formula isn't that hard. Many simply do not want to follow it.
  • increased debt
    Our debt is increasing because of low pay. When the majority of Americans earn low wages, we find that in times of need we use our credit cards to bridge the financial gap. We can talk about saving money and not using credit cards but when the car breaks down, utilities have to be paid, or food/medicine needs to be purchased there may not be any other choice than to use available credit. Everyone one is a payment buyer. New cars are very expensive and I do not see many people who can pay twenty-five thousand dollars in cash. I consider the economy to be a game and I am losing it. Moving higher paying, traditionally male dominated jobs to the third world has decimated my generation. I have come to the conclusion that I have no one to rely on but myself. I can not count on employers, or banks, or the government or even my elected officials to work for the betterment of America's citizens, we have been abandoned.
  • Payment buying
    I live in military town and can tell you so many of our servicemen and women buy based on 'payments.' Rarely do these young people pay cash for furniture, electronics, clothing... Our military should offer financial education to the young service members.
  • Excessive Debt
    At the same time as we are paying down our personal debt, our elected government in washington is cranking up their debt, big time. I call it their debt, but it is also our debt, just as if we had incurred it ourselves. It is ours and we (or our children and grandchildren) will have the burden of paying it back. We have not yet learned to save. We have learned to shift our individual debt to a collective debt managed by our Socialist in Chief and our elected representatives in Washington. We baby boomers are a generation which has squandered the wealth left to us by those before us who worked and saved so hard.
  • Time To Get A Grip
    My generation of baby boomers has turned into the most self-indulgent generation. While the WWII generation made their sacrifice early in life, ours will come late in our lifetimes, as we continue to have to work longer than we originally hoped.

    Unfortunately, that will limit employment possibilities for the generations coming up behind us.
  • Can you spell austerity?
    The only ways to deal with excess debt are to repay the debt or default on it. Either way, the economic consequences are bad for the economy. There is no way to sugar coat it, and the notion that the government can just spend more money and "fix" things is equally silly. Where do you think that money comes from?

    The standard of living for average Americans has to decline at least 30%-50% if we want to repay the debts in a reasonable time. Of course the "easy" way out is for the politicians to print a bunch of funny money and use it to pay our obligations. Germany tried this in the 1920s, and it didn't work too well.
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