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Jun 01, 2009 -- Job outlook to lag even during early stages of a recovery

CLARKONOMICS: Consumer prices continue to drop, unemployment is likely headed a bit higher and defaults on credit cards may hit all-time highs. At the same time, there are clear signs of recovery in the global economy.

Britain, France, Italy and China all officially considered to be out of the recession now. Yet even when our recovery comes, it won't necessarily be rosy on the job front for awhile.

People often wonder why jobs are a lagging indicator of economic recovery. It's quite simple really. When business contracts, employers start laying people off. But when things pick back up again, they start with the overtime instead of rehiring new employees.

That approach only works for so long until you exhaust your existing workers, and that's when you have to start hiring again.

Complicating an employment recovery is the fact that Americans are not relocating for job opportunities in the numbers they once historically did. The difference with this recession is that no one can afford to get out of their house.

But if you can relocate, there are great opportunities in "flyover country" like Wyoming, the Dakotas and other heartland states.

Of course, select fields continue to have great opportunities anywhere you look, such as medicine and government. Both fields need people with a wide range of skills. USAJobs.gov is the official clearinghouse for government jobs.

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What others are saying

  • Offshoring
    I wonder how offshoring plays into all of this. Obama has hinted as trying to curb this. I have heard of a few companies trying to repatriate the workforce by keeping their costs down in other ways and employing American workers. I believe in an economy like this with so many out of work and without health insurance, it's blatantly unpatriotic to send jobs to India or some other so-called cheaper place. Companies that do so are willing to sell out the long term stability of the American worker for the short term profits of worker displacement. I'd love to hear Clark's opinion on this!
  • Gov't Jobs
    That's right. I want a job with the new Government Motors. That's a job with a real future for Obama supporters. Political patronage, that's for me.
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