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May 21, 2009 -- Getting fiscally fit for the long economic recovery ahead

In economic times like these, we cycle between pessimism and optimism regarding the future. It's hard to wrap our head around the fact that we're in a multi-inning game, and it's just the early innings. It doesn't mean we'll be facing ultra-high unemployment for years to come, but it does mean that a full recovery is a long way off -- possibly until 2015.

We as a country have been living larger than our means for quite some time, living on borrowed money from the late 90's through 2006. Banks were loaning up to $30 for each dollar they put up. The difficulties in the stock and banking sectors were a direct result of this outlandish risk they were taking.

The latest estimates from the Fed say that unemployment will rise in 2010 to 9.6%, going down to the 7-8% the year after. So it appears that things will get a little worse at first, then a little better, but things probably won't return to previous levels for years to come. Why? Because we have too much of everything that was made, built, sold and borrowed during the comsumption years-- excess houses, office buidlings, manufactured goods, you name it. It will years to soak up this surplus and work itself out of the economy--possibly as long to unwind as it took to build up.

But it's not all gloom and doom. If your household didn't handle money as well as you like, and you decide to work off your debts, resolve to pay it off one step at a time. Make small adjustments, and just like the economy, your "fiscal fitness" will slowly work itself out. Don't worry so much about when will things get better-- rather, ask yourself whether you are taking the right steps to make yourself finacially healthy.

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What others are saying

  • California
    Do you think California will have a longer climb out than the rest of the nation? 2020?? What will be the industry in California that provides jobs??
  • gov't still living large on credit
    Just like the false economic boom from inflated real estate prices, this false stimulus to the economy is going to come crashing down when debts are called in. I wish there was a fiscally responsible party to support.
  • I'd agree. I think as soon as people start to feel a sense of security in their jobs again and keep hearing from the media that things are getting better, for most of the people who were in trouble and lived beyond their means before, they will start the same thing all over again. There are just too many stupid, irresponsible people for this cycle not to start over again.
  • Status Envy
    Clark, do you really think American's mindset has changed all that much? We're programmed in this country from birth to think we're entitled to "Have it all!". Entitlement could be the new populists religion in America for this century. We've exported this idea to the whole western, and now eastern world. If we can't afford it, then by God, the government better provide it! People have been brought temporarily back to earth recently, but that engrained materialism is a big part of our psyche, whether we can afford it or not.
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