May 21, 2009 -- Getting fiscally fit for the long economic recovery ahead
In economic times like these, we cycle between pessimism and optimism regarding the future. It's hard to wrap our head around the fact that we're in a multi-inning game, and it's just the early innings. It doesn't mean we'll be facing ultra-high unemployment for years to come, but it does mean that a full recovery is a long way off -- possibly until 2015.
We as a country have been living larger than our means for quite some time, living on borrowed money from the late 90's through 2006. Banks were loaning up to $30 for each dollar they put up. The difficulties in the stock and banking sectors were a direct result of this outlandish risk they were taking.
The latest estimates from the Fed say that unemployment will rise in 2010 to 9.6%, going down to the 7-8% the year after. So it appears that things will get a little worse at first, then a little better, but things probably won't return to previous levels for years to come. Why? Because we have too much of everything that was made, built, sold and borrowed during the comsumption years-- excess houses, office buidlings, manufactured goods, you name it. It will years to soak up this surplus and work itself out of the economy--possibly as long to unwind as it took to build up.
But it's not all gloom and doom. If your household didn't handle money as well as you like, and you decide to work off your debts, resolve to pay it off one step at a time. Make small adjustments, and just like the economy, your "fiscal fitness" will slowly work itself out. Don't worry so much about when will things get better-- rather, ask yourself whether you are taking the right steps to make yourself finacially healthy.