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May 07, 2009 -- Real estate in bubble states showing signs of firming up

CLARKONOMICS: California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada are all beginning to see more buyer activity in the real estate market, according to a recent USA TODAY report.

It's all part of the natural cycle of the housing market in bubble states that went bust, and it may hint at widespread recovery to come.

About 2 years ago, the banks were clueless in dealing with foreclosures because they had no recent experience. At first, they tried to get back out of the marketplace the value of the loans, but that was like being in denial. Eventually as more and more foreclosures piled up, the banks capitulated and dropped their prices.

Now we're starting to see some real prices out in the market.

USA TODAY reports that one area of Florida is seeing 1 in 10 homes attract multiple bids. That's the sign of a market starting to recover. Ditto in Arizona, where one house had 14 offers and sold for $40,000 more than its original asking price.

The marketplace is beginning to find a level, and it's starting in the bubble markets that fell the hardest.

It's great to buy real estate at a distress price. But what if you're the owner of a property that's worth less than what you owe on your loan?

Clark expects values to firm up and most people should no longer be underwater in the next 24-36 months. Of course, there will be some exceptions to this because all real estate is truly local.

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What others are saying

  • Price is ' Right Now.'
    At these historic low interest, real estate may be affordable to those still working. However, when interest rate moves higher three to five years down the road, what will happen to home values then?
  • Nationalize Real Estate
    We must nationalize real estate before it gets out of hand. Its what all the other great governments do. The government must rescue us from this explosion, just waiting to happen. That and they must pay pharmaceutical companies billions of tax dollars for swine flu vaccine. Otherwise, all hell will break loose (saw it on CNN)
  • False Dawn
    The others hoes are about to drop, and as usual Clark's not paying attention. Commercial real estate is facing a meltdown as loans are coming due and none of the banks are willing to roll them over at reasonable rates. There will be huge defaults and foreclosures in the coming months. Similarly, tens of thousands of alt-A loans given to McMansion owners are going to reset to much higher rates in 2010 and 2011. Since many of these properties are under water, estimates show that 25% or more of the loans will default. The total value of the bad loans in alt-A dwarfs the subprime fiasco. Look out below!
  • Real Estate Rise
    Clark is correct in so far as real estate markets tend to be local, not national. I cannot speak to other areas, but the Atlanta Area real estate is so everbuilt that it will be years before it really comes back.
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