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May 05, 2009 -- Deflation playing havoc throughout the economy

CLARKONOMICS: We're in the midst of a very unusual economic cycle and Clark has 3 examples to illustrate just how strange things have gotten.

First, our recent cycle of deflation -- where prices go down instead of up -- means senior citizens won't be getting their usual cost of living adjustments in their Social Security checks for 2010 and possibly 2011, according to AARP.

This year, the increase had been just under 6%. Now it's going to zero. That will likely pinch the elderly because they buy more health services than anyone else.

Second, Clark now admits that his longtime recommendation of Series I saving bonds did not account for deflation. I bonds offer a fixed rate of interest for as long as you own them, plus a floating rate based on the rate of inflation. Rates are reset every 6 months.

Now that we're experiencing deflation for the first time since 1955, the rate of interest has been zeroed out.

Clark stresses this new development does not mean you should dump your I bonds. Continue to hold them the full 30 years of their term. The best thing to do is to ride out this 6-month anomaly of zero interest until the rate resets again.

Finally, wages are either holding steady or even going down at a large number of employers. In addition, reduced hours and furloughs equal lower wages. A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll showed more than one-third of respondents say hours have been cut for workers in their household.

So what does it all mean? Simple -- we are in a time when many people are having to make due with less. That can mean eating at home more often or skipping a trip to the movies. But it's a lifestyle adjustment, not a lifestyle disaster, for many of us. The number of food stamps recipients show that it's only about 10% of Americans who are really in a state of desperation. The rest of us just have to be more careful with a dollar.

Unfortunately, Clark won't be able to answer any questions submitted via commenting. If you have a question, please try posting it to our message boards.

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What others are saying

  • The Gap
    Deflation just means that those with cash can buy more, and those with no cash get squeezed, yet another instance of the rich getting richer, etc. The stock market is soaring, but not with "investors" like you'n'me, who have already seen huge drops in our 401k's (the only way most of us were acquiring "wealth" besides the "equity" in our houses). The stock market is now being played by the "traders" grabbing up cheapened stocks so they can make a killing. So the gap between the rich and poor continues to grow, and the middle class continues to shrink. This stinks.
  • Deflation - LOL - get real Clark
    Inflation is _not_ higher prices at the store or the gas pump. Those are just symptoms. The disease of inflation is caused by increases in our money supply with no corresponding increase in productivity. The federal government stopped publishing the official money supply figures in 2005 (gee, I wonder why?), but unofficial recreations of their M3 index show the money supply is growing at 8%-10% annually. This is hugely inflationary and the only thing hiding it right now is the drop in demand caused by the recession. The Federal Reserve claims they can "undo" the damage and reign in the money supply once the economy picks up again, but does anyone here really believe that politicians will allow them to jack interest rates up to 20%?

    No of course not. They will do what politicians have done through the ages -- they will let the hidden tax of inflation clear away the debts they created through their irresponsible spending.
  • Before the economic crash, I think most people would tell you that their wage increases over the past several years have nowhere near kept up with inflation and I'd expect that trend to continue when things pick up again which will simply keep making the gap larger between the have and have-nots. So even people who are financially responsible are constantly having to get by with less and this deflations period really isnt going to help anyone.
  • Prognosticators
    All these msnbc economic experts blogging here are as full of it as the bank experts that got us into this mess. Turn Kramer off for a minute and remember that this govt. is fluid, with spending policies coming up for revision every year or so. I didn't vote for Obama, and his spending is outrageous but needed for the time being to blunt this depression. The Republicans would have done the same thing. The inflation tea leaves will bring the Prez back to earth to reformulate.
  • Not so fast...
    "And with the crazy spending being done by Obama and the democrats, once that deleveraging ends, inflation will begin".

    Buzz, your not accounting for the fact that government revenues increase when the economy rebounds which means more money to retire and service debt. In addition, your assuming that people will want to sell their bonds and jump back into stocks with both feet in the near future and I feel pretty confident that a lot of people are done with the stock market for a long time and will stick with bonds. Also, the government has refinanced a lot of its debt at these record low rates into long term notes. These facts will mitigate future inflation. That being said, future predictions of inflation rates are about as reliable as predictions for future stock prices.
  • I like gas being cheaper and even a gallon of milk cost half what it did a year ago.
  • Deflation
    We have deflation because of the deleveraging going on right now. But that won't last too long. Probably no more than a year. And with the crazy spending being done by Obama and the democrats, once that deleveraging ends, inflation will begin. And once that inflation genie is out of the bottle, there will be no getting it back in. The huge gov't debt will have to be serviced and people will not be inclined to buy gov't bonds unless that interest paid is attractive. And that will cause more inflation. It will be a vicious cycle. Clark, the current deflation will not be a problem for long. It will soon take care of itself. It is the coming inflation that will be a problem, particularly for retired people who will see the buying power of their fixed pensions and their life savings shrink before their eyes.
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