Apr 30, 2009 -- A positive spin on the nation's unemployment numbers?
CLARKONOMICS: A new survey from the University of Maryland finds that 14% of Americans -- one out of every 7 of us -- have lost a job since the recession began. In addition, some 80% of us directly know someone who has lost a job.
The good news here is that unemployment is not as high as 14%. That means many of us have found a new job even in this brutal economy.
Certain locations across America have been hit unbelievably hard by unemployment. El Centro, California has a 25% jobless rate; Yuba City, California has just a little under 20%; Elkhart, Indiana is at 19%; and Bend, Oregon is no longer an employment hotspot -- it has a jobless rate of 17%.
On the other hand, 15 metro areas have unemployment rates that are as low as 4% or better. They're mostly located from Texas all the way up through the heart of the country. For example, Iowa has only 3% unemployment.
Meanwhile, the economy shrunk last quarter at an annual rate of 6%. Yet oddly, the rapid increase in unemployment and the decline in the output of goods from factories actually increases the likelihood of some level of economic recovery in the second-half of 2009.
Of course, the recovery won't be very strong because so many of our problems are based on untenable levels of debt. Still, the amount of money we have outstanding on credit cards is no longer in the trillions -- it's now in the hundreds of billions. We as a country are deleveraging.
Finally, the new era of cautious lending may mean short-term problems, but it also sets us up for significant long-term benefits as we are forced to live within our means.