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Mar 19, 2009 -- Mortgage interest rates in the 3s by May 1?!

CLARKONOMICS: The federal government wants to get the economy moving, right? Well, now they're essentially poised to print $1 trillion to buy up debt that they issued in the form of treasuries!

$750 billion will be going into the mortgage market. The intention is, in part, to drive interest rates down on mortgages.

So here's an extreme prediction from Clark: By May 1, we'll see people locking in on mortgages with rates that start with a 3 for 15-year loans. Specifically, he's making a prediction that he'll hear from a caller who refinanced for 3.875% on a 15-year loan. In addition, he also thinks 30-year loans will be around 4.25% by May Day. As always, you would need top credit to land deals like these.

Will Clark get pie on his face if his predictions prove false? You'll just have to tune in on May 1 and find out!

Meanwhile, there's always the fear that trying to push down interest rates by printing money could cause runaway inflation like they have in Zimbabwe. However, economists theorize that our depressed level of factory utilization creates just enough slack in the economy to help us avoid that dangerous scenario.

Unfortunately, Clark won't be able to answer any questions submitted via commenting. If you have a question, please try posting it to our message boards.

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What others are saying

  • Mortgage rates
    Well it's May 22nd and they are still going up. I refinanced in April for a 15 year fixed, 4.25% with 1/8 of a point. My credit score is 826 and I live in CT. They are now in the 5's even with excellent credit. There is no way they are going into the 3's ever. What kind of pie does Clark like?
  • Time for Clark to refresh the info
    I have been waiting for the big decline in May and the rates are going up instead. What's the word from the master?
  • interest rates did not hit the 3% mark
    Defend yourself Clark, what happend?
  • Rates Did not Hit 3.875% without points
    Clark, now that rates have not reached your prediction of the 3's without discount points (which you problably do not recommend), don't you think it might be time to stop trying to time the bottom and encourage people to refinance soon -- rates over the last week have actually gone up...not down. The problem with the rates not being in the 3's is that the Fed is currently not buying Mortgage Backed Security Coupon's for 3 - 3.25%. The coupons they have been purchasing have been around 4% and above, which is equivalent to a 4.75% - 4.875% 30 yr fixed rate. Unless the Fed starts buying coupons in the low 3's, we will not see rates get as low as you predicted. On a final note, the only time you know the market has reached the actual bottom is when the market is moving up --- an then it's too late.
  • Refinancing the Obama Way?
    So far all I have seen is that you have to have equity to refinance. What about those that have solid credit, high 700's, current on their mortgage but the home value has dropped and their income has dropped substantially due to the economic changes. The Obama plan has not applied or worked yet for me. All I get is you are alinged right but you are not qualified due to several restrictions. Hang on!
  • Fixed rates in the 3's?
    Sorry Clark. Your prediction of rates in the 3's never occured!
  • Rate Factors
    People - it is impossible to compare rates between each other. Please see below for just a few factors that we use to determine your final rate:
    1. Credit scores - anything under 740 mid-score can potentially affect pricing.
    2. Loan-to-value or LTV (loan amount/appraised value).
    3. Length of your lock.
    4. Total monthly debt/monthly income or DTI.
    5. Loan product.
    6. Assets.
    7. Loan type - conventional, FHA, VA, etc.
    8. Property type - condo, single family home, duplex, etc.
    9. Owner occupied, second home, investment property.
    10. Purpose of loan: purchase, cash-out refinance (paying off debts or a second mortgage), etc.
    11. Are you waiving escrows (taxes and insurance).
    12. Document type - ex., full documentation.
    13. State where you live and sometimes county.
    14. Lender guidelines.
    15. Do you require mortgage insurance?
    16. Your type of residency - foreign national, citizen, non-permanent resident alien 17. Recently - are you in a declining market area?
    18. Employment - self employed, fixed income or wage earner.
    19. Lender's loan volume - they raise rates when they have too many files.
    20. Type of credit delinquency - ex., medical collection, recent late payments, bankruptcy, etc.
    21. Buying and selling of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on a daily basis.
    22. Currently the federal government is buying MBS's.
    23. Economic data every day - typically bad news is good news for rates but not all the time.
    24. Events around the world every day can determine the buying or selling of MBS's. Buying MBS lowers rates and selling MBS increases rates.
    25. State and Federal government laws enacted - higher rates in CA vs. GA for example.
    26. No closing cost loan vs. financing closing costs.
    27. Buying down your rate with points or financing them into the new mortgage.
    28. Three day weekends usually has fewer bond traders trading and small buy and sells can exaggerate the movement of rates going into that weekend.
    29. Having to extend your initial lock.
    30. Having a second mortgage with a first mortgage.
  • Closing Cost seems kind of high
    $4500 to $5000 are the quotes Ive been getting for Refi $90,000 on home and 25,000 on second .Can anyone recommand a mortage company that chages no more than 2% total closing cost ?
  • NACA Refi
    We are currently working with NACA on or restructure of our loan so that we do not lose our house. That $50 monthly fee is only if you pruchase with them from the beginning. They were able to get my interest rate down from 6.75% to 3.25% cutting my payment almost in half.
  • Lower mortgage rates?
    Anyone else out their have a good lender and rates to look into for GA?

    I have bookmarked acuonline.org-Thanks Gina. Their 15 yr fixed is at 4.5% right now, 30 yr fixed 4.875.

    I think Clark may be eating crow in two weeks but I sure hope not.
  • Refi...
    I live in North Carolina. I was just able to refi. at 4.5%, no points, with a .75 orig fee on a 30yr fixed. I held out for as long as I could but from 5.75% to 4.5% was to good to pass up. May want to call Carolina Mortgage Authority for anyone in the Cary area.
  • Website to get lowest mortgage
    Can you please post the websites of credit unions where you can get low mortgage rates.. My credit union is offering 5.0 with 0 points for conventional 30 year; 80-20 mortgage
  • Rates are getting closer to Clark's prediction
    My credit union is currently offering 15 yr fixed rates at 4.375% - no points. It's getting closer. My current mortgage is a 15 yr. @ 5.75% and I have the option to switch it to a 10-year also. I'm with Clark on this one, although anything from here on and lower looks great!
  • NACA
    The NACA requires a memebership fee: $50 per month for five to ten years
    This payment occurs once you purchase through NACA and is part of your mortgage payment. This is a required payment as a NACA Homeowner Member. This comes to $3,000 for 5 years and $5,000 for 10 years. Seems alittle pricey to me.
  • Get your mortgage through NACA
    I am getting my mortgage through NACA (www.naca.com). They are a great lobbying group and they have no closing costs and no downpayments. Since you don't pay a downpayment you can use the money the seller might give you for a downpayment and buy down your interest rate. There are folks who pay less that 2%. My sister-in-law bought her home through them about 10 years ago. Also, they are so good that the congressman in South Carolina paid NACA to come there to the collisium and refi all his constituents who were facing foreclosure.
  • Low Rates - No Points - 7 to 30 yr terms
    Associated Credit Union - Just received my good faith estimate - 4.5% on a 15 yr, 2% closing costs. Check current rates at acuonline.org.
  • Mortgage refi: Things I have learned... reply
    Week and a half ago, my current mortgager called me back on a refi of my current mortgage. The offer was a 4.375% with 1.675 points. I've had a 5.375% mortgage since 2003 and like Clark says, if you can not get your loan costs back in less than 30 months with good credit... you might want to keep shopping.
  • I can't even get a call back!
    After reading this I went online and googled and got a link to 4 morgage companies that offered 4.75 with no points closing. I believe that was Weds. and no calls or emails yet. Does someone have a good positive lender to call with a low no points loan, thanks.
  • Mortgage refi: Things I have learned...
    After 2 refi's in 7 years:
    1. You pay a higher rate if you refi less than $100K because they want you to borrow more money so they make more money
    2. No one wants to deal with you at all if you want to borrow less than $60K
    3. You will also pay extra if you don't want to escrow for taxes and insurance (but it's worth the extra cost)
    4. Sometimes the credit union is not your best option
    5. There is currently no such thing as a local lender in my area. All local places I talked to sell 100% of their mortgages.

    I first tried to refi in early Jan. with the credit union I have been a member of since the early 90's. After waiting over 60 days (time after my application was in), the appraiser still hadn't even done their thing. My FICO is 800 and I have no debt except my mortgage. I almost decided to file a complaint with the attorney general's office about it, but instead decided to shop elsewhere for my refi. All I got from the CU mortgage director was an apology, but no quicker service. Now I am dealing with a mortgage broker, getting a similar rate that I would have at the CU. They did in more in 2 weeks than my CU did in over 2 months! And the communication is 100% better.

    BTW, I am currently going from a 30 yr @ 6% to a 20 yr @ 5.1% (might possibly go a little lower before closing?). Some folks think it's not worth it, but I calc I will save about $13K, that's money I would not have otherwise had, and worth it to me.
  • refi
    I have a 10 yr mortgage @ 6.375. I put 125,000 down on a 185,000 home. I owe 58,000. I also had my house on the market all last year, w/ no luck. I took it off the MLS, & want to refi, but am being told I have to have home off the merket for 6 months! ...if I have to wait 3 more months, I'll probably end up being late on payments by then. There is NOTHING in Obamas plan that allows people that are in hardships(no work), to refinance to a lower rate if they've had their home on the market. I am distressed over NO options! Clark, is there any way for me to refi?
  • Refinance with credit union
    I'm not happy to hear these lower rate either. I tossed up if I should refinance now or wait and decided to do it now. Refinance for 15 years at 4.6%, no points, just all the closing costs all over again. You know, double dip theory, that I hate. Don't know if that happens all over or just here in New York State.
  • refi 1st and line of credit
    are there any programs out there to refi. the remaining l0 yrs. of a 15 year mort. financed at 4.75 and a line of credit. after being downsized, layed off 2 times and failing health all in 15 months. i'm totally tapped out and barely making it. i do not qualify for the fannie mae or freddie mac loans refi options. help, help help.
  • Mortgage interest
    Clark for once I kind of wish you are wrong, as we just re-financed at 4.625% for 30 years fixed. Still if it does and helps the economy, why not celebrate.
  • Why wait?
    As noted before, I am a GA closing attorney and while Clark may be correct in May, I think it's foolish to wait. I am seeing rates around 4.75% right now for 30-year fixed. You can wait to save less than $100/month or so or you can GET OUT of that loan that's over 5.5%. Please note his story said FIFTEEN year rates will be in the 3's; 30 years at 4.25%. With a $100,000 loan, at 4.75% the P&I would be $521.65 per calculator at Bankrate.com. For 4.25% it drops to 491.94. Is it worth waiting to see if it drops, or should you go for a 'sure thing' and lock in today and pay the extra $30/month? I'd go for it as things are so uncertain right now (will your bank be there when you are ready? will your job be there? will something else happen?). If rates end up dropping a point again (3.75??) then refi again!

    Gina-intangible tax in GA is $3/1000 of loan amount if over 36 months.

    Mike-you know nothing about Wendy's life, how can you say that? ARMs can be a useful tool; unfortunately some programs were not that great...

    Several comments were made about lower equity in their homes, go to makinghomeaffordable.gov-you may qualify.

    Final shot-online lenders scare me-they offer great rates but quite often cannot deliver the service. Be careful, choose wisely! Cheers, Bo
  • GEORGIA CLOSING ATTORNEY
    I should add that todays rates are in the 4.75 to 5.0 rate. I believe Clark is probably wrong. If you want to really see what is going on go to bloomberg.com and check on "markets and rates". Look at what the 10 year treasury bill is doing and read the articles. The 10 year T-bill drives market rates. Visit the sight for a few days and you will gain a lot of perspective.
  • Closing Attorney in Georgia
    Best rates I have seen in metro Atlanta are 4.5 for 30 year and somewhat lower for 15 year rates. Several of you have comments that I could probably help with. I would be happy to give my opinion. email kenjr@chalkerclosing.com
  • Mortgage Rates at 3.xxx
    Horrors! I just re-financed at 4.875%. I'll feel like a chump.
  • MORTGAGE RATES
    Just received a quote on a 30 yr refi mortgage. The rate is 4.875 and closing costs were 3.21% of the total loan amount. Clark may be right on this one.
  • mortgage rates
    I have a new mortgage, one year old, for 15 year fixed at 5.75. I just as for a re-evaluation for 4.375. I hope it goes to 3+. I will do it again.
  • reply to Jeff
    My credit union (Metro One) only does 15 yrs. loans; however I might be able to get an equity line with them...my other one will be closed out with a refi.
  • refi?
    where is everyone getting these fabulous rates? I have been checking daily and to get near 4.5% you need to pay a few points. give us the urls and specifics please.
  • Refi now or Wait? What to do?
    I am trying to figure out if I should refinance a loan at 7.0 with no PMI to a 5.0 loan with PMI. Will only pay about $150 less in my mortgage payment. Will save in overall interest payment. I have 780 credit scores or higher and good pay. The problem is my loan to value ratio which is at %95 since I have only owned the house for about 2 years. My agent is waiting to see if the Governments plan will no longer require PMI for high loan to value ratios. Your thoughts?
  • Apply then wait...
    You can start a mortgage application then hold off on "closing" the loan until you get a feel for what the rates are doing. Most loan applications have an expiration period. My credit union has a 4 month expiration period after you have made the application before you "have" to lock a rate.
  • Just closed on a 4.25% 30yr. fixed refinance yesterday.
  • FIRE YOUR MORTGAGE LENDER!
    CREDIT UNIONS offer lower rates people! FIRE YOUR MORTGAGE LENDER! (I have Countrywide, and hope to refi with my local credit union).
    And tell your friends it's annualcreditreport.com, NOT so-called freecreditreport.com!
  • Ga mortgages
    Anyone know anything about a Georgia fee (stamp tax?) on mortgage loans over 3 years? We want to loan our kids the money to buy a house. Any restrictions on family loans (other than the federal minimum rate)?
  • When to lock in rate
    If May 1st is the beginning of the rate reduction for a 30 year...when do we start the processing of documents to get locked in. Also, does anyone know more about the 105% load deal that suppose to happen in May also?
  • Mortgage Rates
    I bought a home in Jan/2009 $410,000 with $200,000 down and an Fico score of 803 30 year fixed for 4.75 no points and little closing cost. It is out there you just have to work hard to find it.
  • Mortgage Rates
    Are you serious?! In January of this year, the FED was buying billions of dollars of mortgaged back securities (MBS)while Russia was selling MBS's. The market closed with no effect to mortgage interest rates. Can the government do that to stock prices? No! Why does Clark think he can predict the MBS market?If you don't refi. or don't buynow because you relied on Clark's prediction is he liable? Unless the government captures the entire MBS market, they will not be able to drastically manipulate mortgage interest rates!

    By the way, bankrate.com is a pay to play service. It is not an objective source of mortgage interest rates.

    Last weeks announcement that the FED was going to buy MBS caused a great rally to lower rates. Unfortunately, the re-prices did not reflect the actual improvement since so many lenders have maxed out their warehouse lines recently. The FED bought $500 billion in MBS over the last few months and we never saw the predicted interest rates. Clark, if you are right in your predictions, I will buy you dinner.
  • where to find the lowest rate
    google Credit Unions - some of them have great rates. It my understanding that companies pay to be included on BankRate.com- good luch
  • Best place to find the lowest rate
    Is Bankrate the place to go or should I just use a broker?
  • Wendy
    I do feel for you, but if you signed up for an adjustable rate mortgage, you should have seen this coming. I've lived in my $125K condo instead of a $200K ARM because I couldn't afford it. What were your thoughts at signing? Did you think you could refi?
  • My refinance
    I recently refinanced from 6.75 to 5.25 on a 25 year loan with a credit score of 605.Take advantage and do it now!If they gave me such a low rate I can't see it getting better.
  • 30 yr rate
    Just opened an e-mail from my banker, who has advised me to hold tight for rates in the 4.3s, no points, this week, possibly even better. Obviously, I'm taking my chance just like you folks are. Good luck to us all. Julie, sorry about your predicament.
  • Clark is my Hero
    I have a 5.00 30 Year Fixed thanks to this man and now I will monitor the loan rates and think of him every month I make my low payment.
  • Not enough equity to re-fi
    With my home's reduced value, I no longer have enough equity to refi. I've done all the right things, great credit score, paid on time and pre-paid, and I'm stuck with an ARM that'll adjust in 2010. Something is wrong with this picture.
  • Mortgage rates
    Unfortunately, my houses value is less than what I owe on it. With stellar credit, what good does a low mortgage rate do if I can't refinance my house?
  • 30 yr rate
    I have been working with upfront mortgage broker and the best rate I got so far is 4.625 (FICA 830). I just saw a post from JB and 30 yr no points rate was 4.375. Your brokers contact info would help lot of folks.
  • True credit report.com
    Debbie, You want ANNUAL Credit report.com. Don't go to the other despite the catchy commercials.
  • Lots of luck
    If Clark is right, the system will be glutted even more than it is now. You may be able to lock the rate, but if you can't close it, your rate is gone. The rate don't matter if the loan don't close. If you can get high 4s to 5.0 right now, lock it in and beat the rush.
  • Worthwhile?
    I have 7 years of payments left at 5% fixed interest. Presumably if it drops down to 3%, it may still be worth refinancing? Will anyone offer such a loan?
  • Lock sooner rather than later
    Just an observation as a closing attorney and 'wanna be' economist: Stop waiting for the bottom! Lock in under 5% and move on. Why? Rates MAY drop, but there are still uncertainties in the marketplace. Yes, they are printing money for all this, so INFLATION is coming. Don't wait. Anything under 6% is better than a decade ago, but anything under 5% is awesome. In the last 3 months the lowest 30 year I closed for someone was 4.5%. My 2 cents...
  • One hand giveth...
    Yes, mortgage interest rates are going lower. But they are printing money to make this happen (aka "quantitative easing"), so the prices you will pay for everything else will be going up -- gasoline, food, insurance.

    Looks to me like the only real winners here are the big banks. They will have fewer foreclosures to deal with and the higher prices will mean more earnings from their credit card businesses.

    Do you feel better now? LOL
  • refinancing
    i'm still hanging in there for "the bottom"...refi 6.3 for 3? definitely!
  • Rates
    Are we talking only about mortgages or are home equities going down too? I just refinanced a home equity at 5.45 and I thought that was good, am I wrong?
  • Ok Guess I am going for bust!
    My wages declined 15%; EFFECTIVE 4/1; cancelled paper, garbage, club fees; now looking at ReFi; I have 879 credit score; I want to get best rate and Clark said go to True Credit.com; it costs $10; but I see it costs $14.95; do I trust this site to give me best rate with my credit?
  • Jim Cramer
    Just remember thats the same guy that said Bear Sterns was going to go to 100 and he had a countdown too on his show. He was right however it did go to 100, just not dollars but pennies!
  • Mortgage Rates
    Jim Cramer thinks they go as low as 4% and that we will see a housing bottom in 105 days
  • Why Get Greedy?
    Timing the market isn't possible. If Clark is right, it will be luck. If I had a killer deal in front of me today, I'd take it, even though it's possible that rates could drop further.
  • refinancing rates
    Where are you people getting these low rates? My score is 800 and I am only finding 4.875 for thirty years.
  • mortgate rates
    I hope he's right. We were looking into refinancing and are now putting on hold to see what happens. He was right about gas prices and everyone thought he was crazy.
  • mortgage rates
    Article from WSJ Mar 20-just FYI

    Under 5%, Mortgages May Be Near The Bottom

    By JAMES R. HAGERTY
    The Federal Reserve is going to extraordinary lengths to push down long-term interest rates, including home-mortgage rates. But those hoping mortgage rates will fall sharply from current levels, already historically low, may be disappointed.

    Mortgage firms Thursday were quoting rates averaging 4.75% on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, according to Zillow.com, a real-estate information service. That is down from more than 5% two days ago and about 6% in mid-November. But further big declines will be hard to achieve, partly because the mortgage-lending market has grown less competitive in the past year as hundreds of small banks and independent mortgage lenders have collapsed. The big banks that dominate the market are eager to boost their profits margins, not give deeper bargains to consumers.
    Rates for borrowers with the strongest credit are likely to be in a range of roughly 4.5% to 4.75% for the rest of this year, says Mahesh Swaminathan, a mortgage strategist at Credit Suisse in New York.

    Others say that is too optimistic. Assuming no big change in government policy, Walter Schmidt, an analyst at FTN Financial Capital Markets, sees a range of 4.75% to 5.5% for most of this year.
    The Fed began driving mortgage rates down in late November when it announced plans to buy as much as $500 billion of mortgage securities this year. On Wednesday, the Fed expanded that program, saying it will spend as much as $1.25 trillion on such securities in 2009. That is enough to provide funding for more than half of all home-mortgage loans likely to be made in the U.S. this year.

    The Fed also is buying long-term Treasury bonds to drive down rates on those securities, whose pricing affects mortgage rates.

    By historical standards, rates look incredibly low. Until recently, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hadn't been below 5% since the 1950s. For the past couple of months, rates have been bobbing between about 5% and 5.25%. The 30-year rate averaged 4.98% in the week ended March 19, down from 5.03% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac's survey. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.61%, down from 4.64%.

    One reason mortgage rates often tick back up after a decline is that a rush of people seeking to refinance quickly causes backlogs at lenders, which frequently don't have enough employees to process all of the applications.

    "If lenders are working people overtime to close loans, they don't have an incentive to compete too hard on price," says Arthur Frank, who heads research on mortgage securities at Deutsche Bank in New York.

    The situation highlights a conundrum for the government. It wants low rates to spur the housing market, but also wants the banks to make profits on loans so they can return to financial health.......CONTINUE ARTICLE ON THE WSJ WEBSITE FOR MAR 20
  • Of course they will plummet...
    You can bet you house on that -- I refinanced 2 days ago! :-)
  • Mortgage Rates
    Telling people to wait until after May 1st to refinance is a horrible idea. They are only a few Lenders left, when they have too much demand they raise the Interst rates to slow demand regardless of the Market, also, as the stimulous money hits the economy it will drive interest rates higher. Interest Rtaes are at their lowest levels ever recorded, take your savings now and dont get greedy, because if rates increase and you miss this opportunity you will have cost yourself Thousands of ddollars over the life of the loan. The Government does not dictate Interest Rates the Market and the Major Lenders have a bigger impact than the Government does. If you can save $150-$250.00 per month ors horten yur term to pay off your mortgage, DO IT NOW..Rates may ge at 6.0% levels in May..
  • Great
    Maybe we will all still have jobs by the
    1st of May. Ever think of what would happen if the unemployment rate goes through the roof?
  • 30 year rates
    I have a 811 credit score and was offered a 4-1/2%, no points on a 30 year.
    Should I take it or go for 4-1/4?
  • Down, Down They'll Go
    In a matter of a day the rates have already begun to dive. Clark will be eating pie rather than having it on his face. I think his prediction is rather bold but is going to be right (or at least very close). The central bank is is committed to buying up to $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities this year. What a perfect time to refi!
  • mortgage rates
    JB where are they 4.375? I've heard 4.875, but I also have a higher (super conforming) loan, so maybe that's the prob. Thanks.
  • Pie on the face
    I think Clark is doing most consumers a huge disservice by making an "extreme prediction" of 4.25% on a 30 year and in the 3's on a 15 yr loan by May Day. Most consumers assume he means with "no points" because Clark always preaches to "never ever pay points". It seems to me that Clark too often believes the advertisements on his own website -- or treats them as if they are statistics, instead of what they are.... markteting ADS. He often quotes Bankrate.com rates as "official".... but they too, are just advertisements, usually with a LOT of fine print. Anyway, to anyone trying to figure out if this is the time for you... if you are hoping to get a 4% interest rate, I sincerely hope you do. But I also hope you dont LOSE the opportunity to get 5% because you were steadfastly waiting for 4. Right now, average 30 year contract rates are right at 5% with .7% in points. That is the LOWEST in recorded data (you can find historical data back about 1963). So, good luck to those who are going to wait for 4%, (unless you're willing to pay points to get it) ... but my money is on Clark having some pie to clean off on May 1st.
  • Mortgage Rates Today
    The rates today 3/19/09 witha credit score of 835 are for a 30 year loan no points. 4.375! That is amazing. I can't wait to lock. No need being greedy waiting on a rate in the 3;s.
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