CLARKONOMICS: Ben Bernanke has been widely quoted saying that he thinks we may be out of the recession by the end of the year. Clark's not exactly sure what data the Federal Reserve Chairman is analyzing to come up with that claim, but it's likely more wishful thinking than anything else.

First things first, the $787 billion stimulus package that Clark was opposed to will provide a short-term boost to economy -- no ifs, ands or buts about it. Yet we have a lot of long-term work ahead of us when it comes to cleaning up our excesses. However, that's not to say it will be all doom and gloom the whole while.

Newsday recently published a list of the leading indicators to keep your eye on if you want to try to predict when recovery will come. Watch for unemployment claims to steadily go down; the amount of temporary workers being employed to decline; a drop in how long it takes to sell a house; and a decline in the number of absolutely great travel deals.

Meanwhile, the stock market has always historically been another early indicator. It will usually take a turn for the better about six months before the rest of the economy does.

Bernanke may be smarter than the rest of us, but we'll still have to wait and see if his prediction proves true. There are several negative indicators -- including a drop in factory utilization to pre-1948 levels and the fact that half of all Americans are worrying about being unemployed -- that don't bode well yet for recovery.