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Mar 02, 2009 -- Jobless stats' bark worse than bite?

The number of Americans receiving unemployment compensation is just under 5 million. That's still a low percentage of the American workforce, but the number is very eye-catching. Think about it like this -- it's as if every man, woman and child in a metropolis were jobless!

The official word is that unemployment may rise to over 8%. But that's just the official number. We all know that it could go to 10% or 11%. Even so, this is not at a Great Depression level. During the Depression, about a full third of the workforce was jobless.

Yet Americans are certainly in fear mode. A new poll commissioned by the Associated Press finds that roughly half of us are worried that we will lose our jobs. This is a big change -- we used to only worry about unemployment hitting our neighbor, but never us.

Today we've absorbed so much negative info about the financial crisis of 2008-2009 that we're all feeling this sense of unease. This is a rational response, but it's not a logical one.

Unemployment is likely to ceiling out at about 12% in the worst scenario, according to Clark. It's not going to 20% or above, so don't psych yourself out too much. Certainly, we will have to pitch in and help each other. People may have to move in with a friend or relative during times of unemployment.

Unfortunately, Clark won't be able to answer any questions submitted via commenting. If you have a question, please try posting it to our message boards.

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What others are saying

  • Unemployment numbers are a lie
    They don't account for all the self employed people who aren't getting unemployment and can't find a job. They are surferring more than you can know. My self and my husband are both self employed and we don't get unemployment. I would be happy with any thing right now. We are both in the housing industry and having been doing odd jobs to pay our mortgage.
  • Shadowstats
    @Joe - Paying someone $175/year for a subscription to that website sounds like something Clark would support 100%. Thanks for that informative tidbit.
  • true unemployment is now 18% going to 30%
    www.shadowstats.com measures unemployment the way they used to measure during the clinton administration.
  • Economy
    Sometimes I think the media is fueling the fire for all of this....bad...bad..bad!

    Start telling stories about good banks that are in the black..and yep..there's a lot out there. Also..most people in the USA are not in default in their house payments...
  • Jobless Stats
    Clark,

    In the 30's there were far less people and a lot more Land.

    Today, obviously , the dynamics are reversed - a lot More People and far less Land.

    Numbers are just Numbers
    Statistics are just Statistics
    Unless YOU are the Statistic

    Clark, You Normally are Right on Target.
    This time , You Simply, "Don't Get It".
  • Unemployment.....SAY WHAT?
    Do the math:
    1/3 unemployed during depression
    Up to 12% possible unemployment now.

    So how many people were living in the USA in 1929?

    So how many people live in the USA legally in 2009?

    Hmmmm you can make math tell lies.
  • Clark needs to get out of the ivory tower
    The economy is contracting far more than Clark realizes. Residential and commercial construction has halted. Every business is letting workers go, and no one is hiring. The hispanics are going back to Mexico because there is no work. Wake-up Clark, you are rapidly loosing credibility!
  • 12 % the worst?
    I hope your right Clark, but I think 12 percent is likely, not the worst case scenario. The collapse in retail alone is going to account for much of that. I don't believe the numbers tell the story, however, because small business owners are going to be the biggest group of unemployed.
  • Unemployment - Fear?
    I have known person after person that has been laid off these past few months. My small 50 person company is hanging on by a thread and laid off well over half the staff on temp. unemployment, they have been in business for over 40 years and they say they have never seen it like this. I have NEVER seen it like this.

    I do believe it is different this time. I don't know where these numbers come from but it is not matching up with the reality I see around me.
  • Insured Unemployment Rate = 3.8%
    A lot of people don't realize that there are two main unemployment figures. The rate for those who collect unemployment benefits is 3.8%. The total is 7.6%.

    "The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent for the week ending Feb. 14, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.7 percent."

    "Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply in January (-598,000) and the unemployment rate rose from 7.2 to 7.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today."

    http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20090179.htm

    http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
  • fear of unemployment
    Clark, I really think you are not well informed what is really going on with encomony and how many unemployed people there really is.There are FEMMA Camps that are being put together in th South West being anticipated for the many more who will be homeless. Numbers are rasing and it will get worse!! but I truely hope this does not happen. The media is not telling the Truth to the American people what is really going on!
  • Unemployent rate is a lie
    Clark,
    I surely hope you are right but the facts and reality say otherwise. Start preparing for the worst. So many people are not preparing for this debacle. Start buying canned goods that last a min. of 2 years. Do you want to stand in line for your Govt. rations? Buy things that will last and what you can barter.I buy things that last a couple of years such as green beans, spuds, corn, fish,spam and such that I like to eat. If you consume these things it is no big deal as it lasts years and it is a favorite anyway.If Clark is right then you have extra food and you can consume it as you do. Be an individual and rely on yourself. Be prepared. There is no greater feeling than being reliant. Get ready for the worst. It is better to have and not need that to need and not have. Semper Fi!
  • employment rate
    Its not true that the unemployment rate is solely determined by unemployment claims. The Census bureau regularly interviews people chosen randomly over a period of time about employment status. I was personally involved in this process. For a period of 18 months, a Census bureau individual interviewed me and my spouse at regular intervals with questions such as "Did you work a 40 hour week", or and how many hours did you work last week. The purpose of these questions was to gather more data for unemployment statistics
  • I Agree the Rate is Skewed
    I strongly agree with the previous poster, Linda Baker. There are a number of folks who aren't working and aren't counted in the unemployment rate.

    I live in Austin, and our city is one of the last to be affected by this "recession".

    Lets see, in the last month, both of my daughters were let go. One may not qualify for unemployment, and the other never could find a full-time job so she worked two part-time jobs. They won't be counted in the rate. My boyfriend's brother along with 40 other people were let go and lay offs in his company are still ongoing. The brother plans to partner with someone else in business, so he won't be counted. My boyfriend was self-employed until his business evaporated. He's trying to find a job, and he won't be counted. Two neighbors were laid off and a third said she was asked to take a 10% reduction in pay while three others in her company were laid off. Another neighbor is working a temp. job because she can't find anything else.--She won't be counted in the statistics. I also got a call at work from a man who'd been laid off and was thinking about going back to school.

    I don't think I'm in a fear mode. I think I live in a reality mode.
  • unemployment rate is skewed
    The "rate" is based on those filing for unemployment recently. What about those folks whose unemployment has run out? Or, those who only worked contract, or part time? What about those who have given up on even looking for work? I think the unemployment rate is way, way higher than the official numbers, and the true number of people out of work is reflected by how many individuals are actually not working, not just new "filers." The true numbers are averaging 30% in metro atlanta, no doubt.
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