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Feb 25, 2009 -- Cost to rent vs. buy a home is key metric for housing recovery

CLARKONOMICS: There's frightful news about housing everywhere you turn. Existing home sales have dropped to a 12-year low. Meanwhile, almost half of all homes sold across America in January were foreclosures. That's a startling statistic.

The home construction market is also in disarray. Housing starts are down 60% from just a year ago. Then there are the drops in the Case-Shiller home price index. Las Vegas is down 33%, Miami 29% and San Francisco 31%. The least-affected cities include Denver and Dallas, which are both only down 4% year over year.

Out of this ugly scenario comes the possibility of real opportunity. During the worst excesses of the housing bubble, the relative cost per month to rent was just a tiny fraction of what it cost on a monthly basis to buy. Yet now The Wall Street Journal reports the relative affordability of renting vs. the cost of buying is once again coming into synch.

That makes this a great time to buy a house, according to Clark.

Remember, the only important long haul factor for housing is supply and demand. Builders have stopped building, and that sets the stage for the excess in the market to be soaked up. Opportunists will be a necessary part of the correction. They start the healing by coming in and establishing a pricing floor that creates the stage for recovery.

Of course, "inertia bias" dictates that psychologically we feel home values will always be in decline -- because that's the way things are now. But that's not the case. Most of the bad news (and the decline) has already happened -- though it may not be over yet in every market.

Unfortunately, Clark won't be able to answer any questions submitted via commenting. If you have a question, please try posting it to our message boards.

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What others are saying

  • Rent VS. Buying
    The only time you should mow a lawn is if you own the property. Don't let yourself get used by these cheap landlords who are renting substandard property to unsuspecting tenants. We agree with privous posters, that the owner of the property does use the tenant for lawn care, water bills, garbage bills, and any other non refundable fees,damages they can stick some poor tenant with.
  • Don't Rent A House!!! Or Duplex!!!
    Rent an apartment or CONDO. Not a house or duplex. Why?

    1. You, the tenant, are being used as cheap labor and to basically pay the bills for the guy who owns the property.

    2.Tenants get used for: paying the water bills, garbage bills, and are free lawn care for the owners.

    3. Rent a nice, new, cleaner apartment. With a few amenities: pools, hot tubs, gyms, yard care, security company, and sometimes a social club.
  • Clarkelangelo's Blue Skies, Fluffy Clouds, and Pretty Flowers
    In THEORY, this SOUNDS reasonable, but in the real world things are sometimes a bit different. I've lived in Northern California all my life and the biggest myth is that housing prices across California have collapsed.
    NOT TRUE. Sure the seediest areas have dropped, but places like the SF BAY AREA haven't dropped much, if at all on average. Even Sacramento's better areas have homes that are HUNDREDS of thousands more than they sold for when NEW in the 90's dip. I know because I spent considerable time searching and searching for homes for people when interest rates were high and made the now seemingly cheap prices then unnafordable for many. I don't think we've even seen the beginning of the collapse in Taxifornia. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the $100,000 newer homes sales come back (they'll of course be around 10 years older now), but developers knocking measly tens of thousands on homes they're selling for $400,000 won't cut it in the long run.
    NOBODY should have to pay even a THIRD of a million dollars for an average single family detached home in this country, that's a real crime!
  • reply: first time homebuyer... someday
    i just purchased my first home in december 2008...its actually a condo. for the price i was paying for rent i have a bigger place and i'm the owner. the company i work for is a fortune 500 company and there are lay offs going on but i got my mortgage from bank of america and i added the insurance that pays for your mortgage up to a year if you lose your job,become ill,life changing event,and etc. and the insurance is free for the 1st year. just something to think about. it is better to try to buy now. you can get more house than what you could normally afford. i wouldnt want to be out of a job but its nice to know that i will still have a place to live if i was to lose my job. renting doesnt offer that. i think you have to be out within 30 days.
  • Housing Inventories Rising
    The report came out today. More supply, equal demand, prices dropng
  • 2011 not here yet
    Looking at the ARM reset charts, states where there was lots of use of those products, ESPECIALLY California, the 2nd wave of ALT-A ARM Resets haven't even started yet. To call a bottom now is 2 years too early. Some markets it might make sense to buy, but I know areas of San Diego that still have quite a ways to fall.
  • Cut the fat, not the flavor!
    Well now, You can't live in fear of everything, can you. If you find yourself at the bottom of the pole, maybe you should make yourself noticable! Our economy is a fluxuating cycle, that needs to clense it's self every now and then. But if you give up because of the naysayers, then you pay the ultimate price. "As long as theres a will, theres a way" ever hear that one. It's true. It's up to you.
  • first time homebuyer... someday
    This is great! EXCEPT my husband and I were ready to buy a house within the next year but now with the economy folding up, our paychecks are not as reliable as they used to be. We want to take advantage of the tax credit being offered but we're afraid at the same time we might lose our jobs since we are the bottom of the totem pole. What a mess our economy has gotten itself into...
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