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Feb 24, 2009 -- Money market funds bode well for future economic recovery

CLARKONOMICS: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index has just hit an all-time low with a reading of 25. To give you some perspective, the optimal score would be 100 if people thought the economy was in tip-top shape.

Of course, there's no surprise here in this level of pessimism. After all, the stock market is back to where it was in 1997!

That's when Titanic was the hit of the year and Danish pop group Aqua's "Barbie Girl" ruled the charts. The average cost of a new house was $124,000 back then; a gallon of gas was $1.22; and a movie ticket would set you back $4.50.

People are discouraged and don't know who or what to trust. We've had a scandal a day and a bailout a minute -- and we're fatiguing. But the only thing that's the end of the world is the end of the world…

In the meantime, there is real opportunity right now for those who can afford to seize it.

If you're under age 40, it is imperative that you continue to put money into your retirement savings account. The stock market may go down even further, but it's now a greater vehicle for wealth than it's been in more than a generation since 1981. The irony is that we had massive stagflation in 1981, accompanied by the same pessimistic outlook that we have now.

Ditto for the housing market. Houses on average today are at 2003 values. So it's the best time to buy an affordable home. And yes, you can still get a mortgage -- the money is out there.

Why is Clark so optimistic? One key metric he has his eye on is that there's $3.9 trillion in money market funds in the United States right now. People are accepting virtually zero percent return on this money; money market funds are the modern equivalent of the Great Depression-era tactic of putting money under a mattress.

When the recovery begins, that money means there is almost 4 thousand billion dollars available for investment. Remember, the biggest recoveries historically come in a relatively small number of trading days, so you've got to play to win.

For Clark to be wrong on this, we'd have to either be facing the end of the world or a complete shutoff of free trade.

The second scenario is probably more likely than the first! "Buy American" may be a populist (and popular) sentiment, but remember that the Great Depression was hastened by trade barriers and trade protectionism.

Unfortunately, Clark won't be able to answer any questions submitted via commenting. If you have a question, please try posting it to our message boards.

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What others are saying

  • Buy American
    Buying American used to mean paying more for less, but now, as our middle class is dismantled and our wages diminish, buying American means world class goods at world class prices. We are in a world economy, and either we go along peacefully or lose even more jobs in manufacturing and production.
  • Free Trade
    If companies are penalized and not allowed to have free trade internationally more people will be out of work. I think all people in government who have input on budgets should be required to study at least one course in Economics and pass a written test with at least a 90%.
  • money market funds
    Agree with clark---but the bear market may not be over yet. Bear markets are gut wrenching events. When everybody has finally thrown in the towel and swears they will never throw another dime into this fools game-----that's when the bull market starts. So if you are young you will have a great opportunity----but remember to sell
    when everybody loves the market and have no fear of it going down!!!
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