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Dec 03, 2008 -- Realistic expectations about the housing market

Are your expectations about the housing market unrealistic? Clark was recently stunned by a story in The Wall Street Journal that reported the average American thinks their home's value is going to rebound in the next 6 months.

That's not going to happen.

Housing prices around the country have fallen by huge amounts on average. The worst markets are down 35% year-over-year from peak to trough. More foreclosures in 2009 will mean continued pricing pressure on home values. Now that's a realistic assessment.

So what does this mean to you and your house? Well, the good news is that most of us have no need to sell. So even if your market is down, it is only a paper loss, not a real one since you won't be selling anytime soon.

Typically, home values go up at the rate of inflation plus a little more each year. Right now, we're going through a classic standard correction -- prices went out of sight; they came crashing down; and now recovery will be gradual and we'll eventually get back on track with traditional increases in home values.

Clark is often asked if there is a "magic moment" when it's best to sell. There's no answer to that. The home market gets a normal burst of activity starting sometime between February and April. Early-to-mid 2009 may be your best bet if you're in a non-bubble market. That's just a general gist, without accounting for the fact that all real estate is truly local.

The moves by the federal government to lower mortgage rates mean that you may now be able to sell to a qualified buyer who may not have qualified as recently as a week or 10 days ago.

One last word of advice: Be realistic. Don't go by last year's comps. And realize that housing is not a "can't miss" thing. The Wall Street Journal reports that many Americans think real estate is the best source of long-term financial security. Not so, says Clark. Stocks, bonds and mutual funds are still the best bet -- even though that may sound crazy right now.

Unfortunately, Clark won't be able to answer any questions submitted via commenting. If you have a question, please try posting it to our message boards.

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What others are saying

  • Long term security
    A paid-off house in retirement sure seems like financial security to me. The benefit of ownership is not in getting rich quick, and it doesn't happen if you keep trading "up" for more expensive houses every few years. The big benefit is if you buy a house at, say, age 30 with a fixed 30 year mortgage. Then you're mortgage free by age 60 - earlier if you pay any extra on the principle. And the governmenet pays part of it via tax credits. Your housing cost is also fixed for 30 years (except property taxes). Compare that to rent payments that go up every year for inflation. A nice two bedroom apartment now costs about double what it did 20 years ago, while a fixed mortgage payment from 20 years ago hasn't changed. Factor all that in and home ownership looks pretty good when it's done the old fashioned way.
  • So Should We All File For A Property Tax RE-Assessment
    My home value was reassessed for property tax reasons in early 2007 and the boom was still happening at that time. Now I wonder IF it is time for the county to do a reassessment back to realistic values for everybody. Has this ever happened???
  • Moving Up
    Whoops my bad math...but still a 20k advantage.
  • home prices
    I agree that stocks are a good investment, but Clark, don't forget the leverage, and write-off's that real estate offers. I can't believe I am still above water even in this lousy market.
  • Moving up
    Your wrong Brian, 20% less on 200K is 40K, not 20K
  • The pain hasn't started yet
    People might be better off renting or leasing as the declines in the housing market are still underway. We read about basket cases like Phoenix or Las Vegas where real estate prices have already cratered and assume the "rest of us" have somehow escaped the downturn. No, the storm is just getting started folks, and by 2010 everyone will feel the pain. Doom and gloom? No, just reality - buy that dream house if you must, fools and their money are soon parted.
  • Moving Up
    I agree with Clark but would add that this is a great time to sell if your moving up in home. Selling a 200K home at 20% less you loss 20K. Then purchase a 300K at 20% less and gain 60K. Net Change is plus 40K!
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