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Nov 20, 2008 -- Economists reveal unemployment predictions

CLARKONOMICS: A recent survey of economists finds that they unanimously agree that there is a recession and it began back in April. However, they disagree on how severe things will get going forward. Some economists think unemployment will rise from our current level of around 6.5% to 7.5%, while others think it could go up to 10%. That's a gloomy outlook either way.

You probably know someone who got laid off. It may even be you. People often ask Clark how long the tough times will go on. Many Americans weren't old enough to remember the recessions of the early-to-mid '70s and the early '80s. Both represented a new low and were the worst since the Great Depression.

But modern recessions -- even when they have significant unemployment -- tend not to last too long. In fact, economists think this current one won't be extra long because of all the bailout money being pumped into the economy. The best guesstimates are that tough times won't last longer than mid-to-late next year or until 2010 at the latest.

Looking from a historical perspective, we had a recession that started in 1873 and lasted for 6 years. The duration was so intense because there were no financial instruments available to shorten the length and severity. No food stamps, no unemployment compensation, no bailouts. Today, we have modern adaptations to prevent a complete meltdown.

In looking for new angles to cover the recession, reporters have begun talking to shrinks about the panic their clients are feeling. Clark doesn't want to belittle those feelings, but if you are dejected, remember that you still probably have food to eat and access to shelter (even if your own home is in foreclosure).

So, yes we will have more difficulty going forward, but you've got to be realistic about the degree of difficulty and have some perspective on it.
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