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Nov 20, 2008 -- Economists reveal unemployment predictions

CLARKONOMICS: A recent survey of economists finds that they unanimously agree that there is a recession and it began back in April. However, they disagree on how severe things will get going forward. Some economists think unemployment will rise from our current level of around 6.5% to 7.5%, while others think it could go up to 10%. That's a gloomy outlook either way.

You probably know someone who got laid off. It may even be you. People often ask Clark how long the tough times will go on. Many Americans weren't old enough to remember the recessions of the early-to-mid '70s and the early '80s. Both represented a new low and were the worst since the Great Depression.

But modern recessions -- even when they have significant unemployment -- tend not to last too long. In fact, economists think this current one won't be extra long because of all the bailout money being pumped into the economy. The best guesstimates are that tough times won't last longer than mid-to-late next year or until 2010 at the latest.

Looking from a historical perspective, we had a recession that started in 1873 and lasted for 6 years. The duration was so intense because there were no financial instruments available to shorten the length and severity. No food stamps, no unemployment compensation, no bailouts. Today, we have modern adaptations to prevent a complete meltdown.

In looking for new angles to cover the recession, reporters have begun talking to shrinks about the panic their clients are feeling. Clark doesn't want to belittle those feelings, but if you are dejected, remember that you still probably have food to eat and access to shelter (even if your own home is in foreclosure).

So, yes we will have more difficulty going forward, but you've got to be realistic about the degree of difficulty and have some perspective on it.

Unfortunately, Clark won't be able to answer any questions submitted via commenting. If you have a question, please try posting it to our message boards.

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What others are saying

  • Economy
    Am I the only one who sees America as the next 3rd world country? The idiots in Washington are making the economy so much worse!! I am stocking up on rice and bought laying hens for the future. That's how bad I see it is going to get!
  • Teaching a Lesson
    Is all of this economic craziness teaching a lesson? Live within your means, pay in cash, put savings on autopilot with e-banking every paycheck, and don't rely on credit to give you the lifestyle that you feel like you deserve.
  • Recession
    How long will the current recession last? Until people come around to really understand that they cannot live on 110% or 120% of their income! This is such a foreign concept to many many people that it will take longer than most believe.
  • Prepare for rain
    It has been said when the sun shines prepare for rain and when it is raining prepare for sun. In short always have a plan and never give up. i have seen both the 70s and 80s recessions , during both i was UNDEREMPLOYED, but when the sun came out i recovered , we all will, America still is the best place to realize a dream if you have a plan . It always will be.
  • unemployment
    John Williams at shadowstats has unemployment calculated at 15% - click on the alternate data link
  • EDUCATION
    I am working at a center where we provide a free service teaching people how to interview and update resumes. I get so upset when someone has gone to a private company and is paying for a skill that will not make them employable. Please don't pay a large amount of money to a private school without researching there results. Not the results they give you. Compare the cost of there classes to the local vocational school or Jr. college. Don't let them take you for thousands of dollars.
  • Ideas
    I have some ideas. We should return to simplicity and step back from some of our excesses. 1) Families should live together if possible and share expenses. 2) Less eating out and more brown bag lunches 3) Lose the cells phones and buy a pre-paid one. No contracts or fees. 4) Instead of movies and resturaunts, have friends come over bringing a dish and watch movies.
  • stagdeflation
    2009's challenge will be global stag-deflation. The most desirable way to met this challenge will be through fiscal policy stimulus. This stimulus will have to be very large and will take great political courage. The option of not meeting this challenge will be a more severe recession/depression. Lets hope we have the leadership needed.
  • economy
    Clark, I'm scared. I'm a photographer,needless to say,it's not a necessary item in very tough times.
    What do I do to prepare for what I think are very tough times ahead?
  • Inflation is baked in the cake
    Clark needs to learn something about economics. By definition, inflation is an increase in the supply of money/credit without a corresponding increase in productivity. The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are pumping 3-5 trillion dollars into our slowing economy, and sometime next year we will experience inflation effects unlike anyone alive has ever seen.

    At some point other countries will stop taking our falling dollar as payment and we will get a new, revalued, currency. Can't happen here you say? Sorry but it has already happened several times in our country's history.

    Prepare yourselves for the storm. If you have large cash holdings or deposits you need to move them into other assets before next June.
  • Gov't should stay out
    FDR's policies prolonged Depression by 7 years, UCLA economists calculate (http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409.aspx?RelNum=5409)

    "Why the Great Depression lasted so long has always been a great mystery, and because we never really knew the reason, we have always worried whether we would have another 10- to 15-year economic slump," said Ohanian, vice chair of UCLA's Department of Economics. "We found that a relapse isn't likely unless lawmakers gum up a recovery with ill-conceived stimulus policies."

    In an article in the August issue of the Journal of Political Economy, Ohanian and Cole blame specific anti-competition and pro-labor measures that Roosevelt promoted and signed into law June 16, 1933.
  • Economy
    If Americans would have only bought American products none of this would have happened. We would all have jobs as long as the companies weren't allowed to move out of the country. What the government should do now is put a large tax on any imports to stop people from buying foreign products.
  • eco down turn
    Why do we think that we can compete with countries that have such working poor that it is almost like slave labor? We must lower our middle class or eliminate it so that our country will be able to match/compete with the rest of the world. Through our politicians we have chosen to do away with the old USA life style and go with the way it is in other countries. This will make us competitive with the rest of the world but also do away with the middle class. Once the vast majority have jobs that produce very little pay, who do the "companies" expect to sell their stuff to? Where does the government expect to get money from? Last year I paid a little over $22,000.00 in taxes. This year, because of the job loss, I will only have to pay $8,000.00. The greed at the top and bottom is going to do something that most people will not like. Corporations continue to steel money from the work force and cna't understand why they can't hire productive and loyal employees. What are they stupid? I think so.
  • Government Spending
    I understand that you don't anticipate this econiomic downturn lasting too much longer because the government has provided "rescue" packages. What do you think will happen if we keep overspending, keep increasing the deficit, and continue to artificaly inflate American "wealth". Won't the book drop eventually? What does America really produce anyway (besides crappy cars)?
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