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Oct 20, 2008 -- Finding the silver lining in housing troubles

Some of you may have heard Clark say it will take until 2011 or 2015 (in bubble markets) for housing to recover. Those are scary years if you're sitting in a house and wondering when you'll have some value.

The reality is that we built way too many houses and condos than there were available families and people to occupy them. This trend was fed by speculative building, speculative buying and silly loans. The surplus is between 2 million and 10 million properties, depending on what measure you use.

Now the pendulum has swung the other way and new construction has almost stopped. One consequence of the swing has been that residential builders are experiencing a depression. Housing starts are the lowest they've been in 17 years and maybe even since WWII -- again depending on what measures you use.

Recently while driving through a rural area, Clark was stunned by the amount of scarred-earth neighborhoods he saw. Most of these abandoned half-built complexes were surrounded by chain-link fences. This is a natural part of the correction process as new supply gets choked off. Unfortunately, it also means builders are suffering mightily.

So if you are a first-time homebuyer or a move-up buyer, has there ever been a better time? Sure, you'll take a depressed price for your existing home if you're the latter, but this is a great time to move up in price point. What an opportunity! And if you buy a spec home, builders are offering some amazing incentives.

But hold on, you say, "Show me the money!" The assumption that mortgages are unavailable simply is not true. Lenders may require you to have real credit standing -- a very different scenario than the past few years -- but the money is there. Having a FICO score of 720 or above should make a variety of mortgage products available to you. FHA buyers may find additional leniency on the credit score front.


Unfortunately, Clark won't be able to answer any questions submitted via commenting. If you have a question, please try posting it to our message boards.

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What others are saying

  • beyond your means?
    Having lived thru these times before
    its real simple, if you bought something you could not afford
    you either get a second job
    or sell it, if you paid to much why should I bail you out?
    Fha is offering low intrest loans to those who have arm's
    If you have a fixed rate not much luck

    I own two homes and have been unemployed for 2 years
    living off of my IRA
    but will I accept money from my fellow taxpayers
    no way........I will just rent them out
    and live in my RV and travel to find work
  • Bailout - Homeowner woes
    How is the bailout actually going to help individuals who are struggling to pay their mortgages? No mortgage company is going to willingly take a loss to lower the amount owed to present market value. What can the home owner do short of giving up to foreclosure?
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