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Jun 19, 2008 -- Is pessimism about the economy truly warranted?

CLARKONOMICS: Clark recently participated in a joint radio event with 2 political talk show hosts who denied there's a recession when asked by a moderator. For his part, Clark believes we're in the midst of a consumer recession.

The general outlook about the country is the lowest it's been since the 1970s. Only a little more than 10% of us think that the economy is OK.

Yet unemployment is still low compared to some of the rougher times during the modern era. For example, the rate of inflation is not anywhere close to where it was between 1979 and 1982.

We emerged out of that doom and gloom to have some of the best economic decades in our country's history. So why the rampant pessimism now?

Clark believes there are 3 reasons: The tight housing market; the mushrooming level of debt we're carrying; and the fact that more of us own stock in companies because of 401(k) plans. The latter means that we feel the sluggishness in the stock market in a personal way.

But consider this: If your home value declines temporarily, it only matters if you're looking to sell. Likewise, your 401(k) moves with the rhythms of the market. So if you keep contributing, you actually benefit by picking up more shares when the costs are low.

Pessimists allege that America can't continue to be an economic power. Clark disagrees. We have a culture that lends itself to entrepreneurship. In fact, an economic slump is a great time to start a business -- though it may seem counterintuitive. But you can hire workers at lower wages and get space cheaper right now.

One final thought: Capitalism is booming overseas, so your investments should be diversified with anywhere from 20% to 40% in overseas stock. Don't have a "home bias."


Unfortunately, Clark won't be able to answer any questions submitted via commenting. If you have a question, please try posting it to our message boards.

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What others are saying

  • Economic pessimism
    Clark, thanks for the upbeat outlook. We need it. If only the price of oil/gasoline did not hold us "Hostage"
    Our wallets are hurting/Credit,Credit and more Credit - to survive.
  • Capitalism, not Government, works
    Government interference in the free market leads to $4.00 gas just as "Welfare Reform" lead to Paternity fraud and the new "Welfare Queens" are the Counties in all 50 States. They hunt for dollars not Fathers, since the Feds provide $25 for every dollar they snag, legally or illegally!
  • 9 Trillion Dollars in Debt: it is the Best of Times for the Rich
    For Millionaires like Clark, it is the best of times; for Corporate Executives who steal pension money it couldn't be better. For starvation wage employees(minimum) or Illegals who make up the Republican/Liberterian Slavery Movement. Cheat them out of their pay, then threaten to call immigration if they complain.
    Yes, Clark, the Vicious Rich's idea of Heaven. For Human Beings it is hell, however.
  • Looking at 1970's as a comparison
    It is true that we are not at the double digit inflation rates of the 70's. However, when looking at the 70's we also have to compare wage/CPI ratio's as well. Real wage increase curves are flat to negative and CPI curves are up, however modest. Still one has to concur that the purchasing power is lesser at the this time in history and out of reach for quite a few people. Just don't ignore the ratio's between wage/CPI. It provides a much longer term view of real purchasing power.
  • I do not drive much or owe much
    so I do not have any problem with the current economy.
  • recession
    What about the MSMs willingness to fan the flames of pessimism and to ignore the good news?
  • Recession
    I agree with the moderators. I country is NOT in a recession. We have been going through an economic slowdown but we have not yet hit recession. Fuel prices are fastly driving us that way but we are not there yet. The sad truth is, no administration whether Democrat or Republican has seriously addressed the issue of fuel except to outlaw more drilling of course.
  • Recession
    Most likely the two unnamed political talk show hosts were right win ultraconservatives who are Bush worshipers and would never say anything remotely critical of W. IMO.
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