Mar 04, 2008 -- Consumer recession is upon us
CLARKONOMICS: All the talk of recession comes at an interesting time right in the midst of a presidential race. Bush has taken great offense at people calling this a recession. He believes we're talking ourselves into trouble and it's just political baiting. With all due respect to the president, Clark begs to differ: We are in a consumer recession. Consumers are on a strike of sorts and the economy is weakening. GM has reported a terrible decline in sales. Ford, meanwhile, will cut vehicle production by 10% in light of flagging sales.
Construction spending is declining too. Oil is at record high prices adjusted for inflation. So why is Bush upset? When you look at the overall economy, we may actually escape the textbook definition of a recession -- two quarters of decline in the economy. That's only because we're exporting like mad. The decline of the dollar makes U.S. factories more competitive with overseas factories. Some foreign competitors may even build U.S. based factories because the dollar is in their favor.
No matter how you slice it, the truth is that people here at home are having a tougher time -- whether or not we get to the textbook definition of recession. Employers are not hiring as much. Optimism in the small business sector -- the real engine of U.S. capitalism -- is at the lowest level in just short of 20 years. What does this mean to you and me? Clark's usual maxim rings true: Reduce the amount of debt you've got. You must have your financial house in order. If your lifestyle requires borrowing, try to take a step away from that.
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