Feb 27, 2008 -- Federal Reserve cuts rates, mortgages take a hike
CLARKONOMICS: People's eyes often glass over when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke starts talking about macro and micro economics, M1 and M2 and other gibberish. The real question he should be answering before Congress is are we or are we not in a recession? Bernanke really hedged his bets on that one during his latest Congressional appearance. He instead talked about a market facing risk from housing, credit card and job sector woes.
Let's take a look at the housing sector and see how it's been impacted by the Federal Reserve. A few weeks ago, a listener called in looking to refinance a mortgage. He wanted to know if he should wait for the Fed's cuts to get a lower rate on the refinance. But the Fed's interest rate cuts actually drove mortgage rates up by almost a full point. Here's why: Say you're an investor. The Fed is pumping money into the economy, and that makes you fret about inflation. You then have to calculate into a mortgage how afraid you are that the rate of inflation over 30 years will kill your rate of return. So that automatically slightly bumps up the mortgage rate.
However, there is some good news about where we're headed as a country. If we are moving toward an economic spill, we have a great point of entry. The rate of unemployment is hovering in the 4s; historically, economists did not even think it was possible to get this low. So that's a good thing. As unemployment rises from here, remember that we've seen far worse before. And no, you don't have to look back to the Great Depression -- just look back to the early '80s.
The reality is that we're in a "hangover" phase. We borrowed too much, bought too much and didn't pay enough. Dancing to the music of cheap money is over. There are a couple of long-term things we need to do to establish sound financial ground. First, we as individuals need to spend only the money we have. Not a penny more. Second, our government needs to spend only the money it has. Trying to borrow from tomorrow to pay for today is a problem. That's why the Fed flooding the market with money and lowering rates is not having the desired effect.