What are the chances that you could buy a home today and it will be worth less in two years? A new study out by PMI Mortgage insurance researches this very question and claims that there is a 16 percent chance - on average - that your home could decline in value in two years. It depends, in part, on where you live. And, the Boston metro area has the largest probability for a decline in home values. Homes in the Boston area, which includes some of New Hampshire, are expected to decline in value by 53 percent in the next two years, accordin got the survey. Other at-risk areas include San Jose (a 53% chance of decline), San Francisco and Oakland (48%), San Diego (43%), Providence, R.I. (40%), Sacramento (37%), New York City (36%), L.A., (36%) and Detroit (27%). The least risky areas include Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Rochester, Oklahoma City and Indianapolis. So, there is definitely a decline in some markets, but its not yet a collapse. Get the full list by
clicking here. So why is it happening? Well, there are a handful of areas where home values have outstripped family income. Add to that the fact that people have gotten ahead of themselves in terms of the type of homes theyre buying. According to the National Association of Realtors, people buying homes "on spec" or as second homes accounted for more than 35 percent of all houses sold last year. One in four homes bought last year were for investment purposes only, which always means the market is ahead of itself. People see real estate as the safe place to put money. But, it's important not to get caught up in the excitement of buying. Real estate should be a long term proposition. If youre not planning to flip the house, look at it as something you would keep for a minimum of five years. And, before you buy, take a look at the PMI survey to find out what risks you might be encountering.
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